Evaluation of California Transportation Electrification Programs

Cadmus leads the third-party evaluation of over $750 million in charging infrastructure spending for light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle at four California Utilities—Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas & Electric, San Diego Gas & Electric, and Liberty Utilities. This is the single largest evaluation of charging infrastructure in the nation. These early utility investments are working in tandem with the state’s increasingly stringent vehicle mandates to transform the transportation market.

The evaluation team seeks to answer fundamental questions about the utility role in charging infrastructure, including:

• What drives and ignites market adoption? 
• How to efficiently scale medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle (EV) programs? 
• How to capture latent demand for electric vehicles?
• How to effectively ingest and manage complex data streams to improve transportation electrification programs over time?

Our evaluation findings shed light on the impacts and challenges of accelerating widespread transportation electrification through utility-led programs.

Standard Review Projects and AB 1082/1083 Pilots Evaluation Year 2022 (Year 2)

Standard Review Projects and AB 1082/1083 Pilots Evaluation Year 2021 (Year 1)

The evaluation uses extensive data collection and analysis, including annual fleet manager surveys, 15-minute advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data, EV service provider cloud data, interviews, 500+ site visits, emissions and health impacts analysis, managed charging analysis, total cost of ownership analysis, and Delphi panels. Electric school buses feature prominently in the evaluation, with 32 fleets represented as of December 2021. Additionally, the evaluation team has a front row seat to observe Cajon Valley Union School District’s deployment of Lion Electric’s vehicle-to-grid-capable school buses in the San Diego Gas & Electric utility territory.

Through our work, the Cadmus team has amassed the largest data sets in existence on EV charging, utility incentives, and project costs to assess the impact of investments on the market adoption of transportation electrification. Our multiyear analysis centers on programmatic approaches, consumer responses, and market conditions to understand the full context in which these impacts—or lack thereof—can be measured and attributed. The study has two major implications for state policymakers and utility planners. First, real-world findings specific to transportation electrification are available to help guide investment allocations, and second, all assumptions must be continually assessed and revised to support the success of transportation electrification projects in each jurisdiction and at scale. The evaluation is led by Cadmus and Energetics, with support from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory; University of California, Davis; ZMA; and DAVenergy.